Whether part of hedging their bets for 2019, or a change in overall strategy, the support of the opposition, morally and financially is at an all-time high, staff writer TSHIRELETSO MOTLOGELWA
Those close to Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) president, Duma Boko say he is a wanted man. The demand on his time is unprecedented. However, even more surprising is the demand for face time with the opposition chief – the stream of business people and business leaders looking for his attention is astonishing. The opposition has always had its people within the business community. They were a secretive lot, expressing their support with an occasional friendly phone call, or a secret envelope just before an election. Now, opposition insiders say the level of interest in the opposition has taken them by surprise.
One Chief Executive Officer of a major local company tells me that immediately after the 2014 elections, the company sought to gauge the political landscape and conducted a survey. The results of the survey indicated that the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) is in serious trouble of losing in the next elections. Now with an eye on both the short term, and the longer view, his company has since adjusted its method of dealing with opposition parties, taking a more “sophisticated” approach as the corporate head calls it. The recent elections, and the survey, have forced the company to seriously consider life after the BDP, a prospect their strategists never considered in the past.
The BDP has always and remains the overwhelming recipient of support from the business community. The BDP never looked like it could lose an election, until now forcing corporate heads to shift course, lest they be found on the wrong side of history if the opposition takes over. The BDP, predictably, has projected an entitled disposition towards support by the business community. The business community in exchange has always obliged, those who sought to chart a different direction were severely punished.
In the build-up to the 2009 General Elections Kalahari Breweries attempted to implement an open political funding strategy. It disbursed a total of P2million to the ruling party and other political parties using a proportional ratio calculated from the party’s electoral performance in the 2004 general elections.
KBL officials say they were hauled over the coals by government. In two years’ time the company came out and declared that it would no longer make open donations to political parties. In the pre-2014 world, the BDP preferred that political parties found their own financial backers. Awash with corporate donations the party insiders were sure that they would receive the lion’s share of any donation from the business community. History shows that the party has received millions from outside funders including De Beers – one of the leading diamond companies in the world. But that was the era of the Masires and Mogaes when the party looked invincible. The party came out of the 2014 General Elections battered and bruised, and for a moment looks vulnerable.
The BDP for the first time won less than 50% of the vote, 47% in fact, down from 52% in 2009. It was only because Botswana still operates a rather outdated first-past-the-post constituency voting system that the BDP was able to win this election for certain and stay in power for another five years. The distortions of the winner-takes-all constituency system enabled it to translate 47% of the popular vote into 65% of the seats in Parliament; 37 seats out of 57 seats directly elected by the populace. After adding the five extra seats indirectly elected by the Parliament – four specially elected members of Parliament (MPs) and the president – the BDP’s de facto support rose to over 67%, or 42 seats out of 62. One business leader said the electoral system is part of the problem for the BDP, it musks the party’s decline. However the reformist arm of the party is not fooled, and has been arguing for a marked change in direction to stem the flow.
Analysts have however argued that De Beers, perhaps the most overtly pro-BDP company, is shifting gear in light of the new political developments.
Allan Seccombe of the South African business daily, The Business Day covered the recent Connecting Resources to Society held in Gaborone. He said the De Beers is adjusting its tone so it does not appear as too overly pro-BDP. “De Beers has adjusted the tone of its engagement with Botswana — making it more about the people than its relationship with the government — to manage the risk of being perceived as too close to the ruling party. This perception could cost it dearly if the opposition wins the next election. De Beers has to negotiate the political landscape, distancing itself in the eyes of the public from a perceived cosy relationship with the government as expectations grow of the BDP possibly being voted out in the next elections in four years’ time or the elections after that,” he wrote in the newspaper’s online platform BDLive this week.
Electoral performance of the BDP aside, the business community has its own reasons to lose faith in the ruling party. Alongside the much discussed utilities and infrastructure limitations, the business community has been particularly irked by what they see as a chaotic immigration system. BOCCIM President, Lekwalo Mosienyane has been fighting for a more transparent and equitable visa system, voicing the position of business that as it stands the Botswana system is both opaque and detrimental to doing business. Former President Festus Mogae has criticized the visa system as an impediment to attracting Foreign Direct Investment. The complaints of the business community reached the Public Accounts Committee whose three members MP Guma Moyo (BDP), Ndaba Gaolathe (UDC) and Dithapelo Keorapetse (BCP) chided the Ministry of Labour and Home Affairs ealier this year.
Moyo who is also Member of Parliament for Tati East criticized the ministry for the summary rejection of work permits without proper explanation, and the deportation of foreign nationals without due process. Moyo told the Ministry of Labour and Home Affairs accounting officer that the ministry is failing the nation due to misguided immigration practices such as rejection of working permits under the guise of security threats. He said he had received complaints from various stakeholders among them Botswana Investment Trade Centre (BITC) and Hospitality and Tourism Association of Botswana (HAATAB) over unexplained rejection of foreign entrepreneurs and tourist VISAs and work permits.
BCP President Dumelang Saleshando said the change in tone is noticeable, although it is still very far from open support of the opposition. “It manifests itself in the business community openly expressing its frustrations with the ruling party and its policies.
We know that some business leaders are very open about their dissatisfaction with the BDP Government” said Saleshando. However, Saleshando said while the business community shows a much more approachable position towards the opposition, frustrations itself is not enough for the opposition to be satisfied with. “The frustrations of the business community while a positive thing for us, is still not something we should take for granted. The second phase would be for the opposition collective to come out and provide an alternative program that is clear and shows obvious benefits to the business community. We need to win them over,” he argued.
He said, therefore, going forward the opposition has to show how it would approach the next elections in 2019, what programs it has in place if it takes over. “We have to build on those frustrations,” he concluded.
But the opposition cannot celebrate yet, warned UDC Spokesperson, Moeti Mohwasa. While he concurred with Saleshando, he said business is not yet pro-opposition. “We wouldn’t say it is being supportive to the opposition. It is disgruntled with the ruling party. But it is not just the business community that is disgruntled with BDP, all sectors of the society are,” he said, arguing that business leaders are pragmatic and that they realize that the direction the BDP is taking will not help the country, and by extension, their businesses. However he said this new tone has not translated itself to full financial support for the opposition. “They still finance the BDP more than us, you will get say P10 000, while they give BDP P20 000” he said. Mohwasa also warned the opposition to be alert to being infiltrated by unethical elements from the BDP seeking to escape punishment for their activities by turning to the opposition in time for a change of government.
The reformists within BDP hope that the current conditions will change when President Ian Khama leaves. One insider told The Business Weekly & Review that the party has a good chance of reform to its pro-business principles of the past. “The BDP will reform. In fact at a policy level the party has a very pro-business philosophy. The current concerns can be addressed simply by going back to those principles, and implementing our policies in an assertive way, and taking on board the views of the business community” he argued.
Secretary General Botsalo Ntuane says the party’s relationship with the business community remains intact.
“We rely on donors, both individual and the business community for our sustenance as a party. All our activities are reliant on these sources of funding. We maintain good relations with our donors and appreciate their value to the party. Please note that they support us because it is through our policies that they have prospered,” he said. He said while it is impossible to know if the business community supports the opposition he wonders why it would do such a thing.
“Why would they support opposition parties whose policies are untested and don’t make economic sense and hence don’t promote the interests of business?” wondered Ntuane.